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How to use the recession to Build wealth & get more returns

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recession

Word “recession” sounds a bit scary. And investing during this is feels like scarier given whole media propagate fears and confusion. And advice you to tread caution. I just wonder when it’s come to investing when you should not tread caution?

What is a Recession?

Recession is a slowdown in economic activities for two consecutive quarters or more often caused by

a high-interest rate which in turn reduces in real wages hence low liquidity in the economy a decline in consumer demand.

It also has to do with the Long term and short term business cycles which very natural and repetitive in any economy or industry.

image courtesy: https://www.thecanadianencyclopedia.ca

Recession is the best time to invest

If you are a long term investor this is possibly the best time to go “Long” in the market. Warren Buffet describes this time as ” When it is raining gold you don’t walk around with thimble” what he meant is when you see the Whole market is in deep discount that’s time to load up the truck not to shy away in fear.

when fear grips the market even great companies takes dips and investor like Waren buffet when investing, take huge advantage of this kind of scenario. His coca-cola purchase in 1983 still generating him 64% Annualized Returns which is also rising every year and recently Apple, all are a result of the same investing principle.

In Short, He defines a successful method of investing is to “simply attempt to buy the fear and sell the greed” , And to do this you simply need to do the followings

Focus on Quality companies Only

With recession at hand there all the more reason for look for quality companies which can withstand the recession. Quality companies are run by “Great Management”, have a good solid operating history and have “Business or Economic Moat” aka Competitive advantages.

Moats can be its Brand power, Franchise networks, low production cost, High switching costs, a virtual monopoly, etc.

Invest only on what you Understand

This is a no brainer well one should never ever invest in what he doesn’t understand. if you do, you are not investing but simply gambling. The good news is you don’t have to understand every company out there you should prepare Your Own “Circle of competence” it’s like your wishlist which contains a list of the companies you Understand especially their business moat and you want to buy. so, if you don’t understand the technology industry then simply you don’t have to invest in that likewise if you can’t understand company with a really complex business structure or financials you can simply skip it off. Find companies that you undrstand.

Don’t forget the Value

when investing one should not get influenced by daily price fluctuation of the markets. you need to compute Fair value a company first. There are several popular valuation models such as the DCF method, Graham’s or even peter lynch value used by people.you should never pay the market price rather you should buy the shares at a significant discount ideally 25% of course, more the better. This discount is also called the Margin of Safety. which is very important in case you make any mistakes in your research this margin of safety will save you.

The right time to dollar average

Once you bought at discount and if the stock price goes even lower then it actually time to cheer and buy more. It’s like when you are buying a piece of the company let say $100 and which you valued it at $150. And if the price goes further below let’s say $80, of course, you should be happy and buy more.

Invest in an index fund

If everything mentioned above is little too much for you even then you can invest simply invest in an index fund. This is simplest way to invest and suitable for newbies or simply doesn’t have much time to find bargains in the market. you can Just examine the trends to even further optimize your investments.

Have Patience

When investing during a recession requires a lot of patience and mental discipline.it just takes time to recover reduced consumer demand and other things. So do not check your stock prices daily but maybe weekly. You are investing for the long term you should ignore the daily noise of the market.

In conclusion

It is the best time to be in cash or it’s equivalent before recession or slowdown hits the markets. So that once some of the great companies reach the discounted price you can actually buy a truckload of them. As warren buffet once said you just need to invest only 3-4 great companies in a lifetime to be rich. and the good part is you don’t have to do anything else. So, throw away your thimble and at least ready your washtub in the next gold rain. Happy investing.

Stock Screeners – 5 Most Useful Tools Investing/Trading

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5 most powerful stock trading tools

Best Stock screeners

So what is the best stock screener available?

Well, Not all stock screeners are created equal.

Whether you are into the intraday trading or a longterm investor. Technical pundit or even fundamental investor.

Warren Buffet or Average momentum trader.

Stocks screeners are sure to make your life lot easier.

To make successful trades there’s a constant need to find new ideas every day. This where Stock screener comes to play

Below is the list of best stocks screeners which covers many markets, so Even if you are looking for screeners for International Markets. Such as Singapore, India, Philippines, Canada or simply USA Markets Read on

1.Tradingview 

Market Covered: USA, Canada, Europe,India + 45 countries

Category: Trading

Best Feature: one of Best Charting solution available

best sock screener - Tradingview

One of the best stock screener tool for day traders and swing traders. A technical stock screener, even loaded with  Crypto-currency screener, bonds, CFDs & forex screener all rolled into one Global platform.

This site is not only Easy and intuitive for beginners, and powerful enough for advanced chartists. It also lets you discover & share your investment ideas and even learn from others in real-time.

With a very active trader community, this Site is worth checking out.

2.Gurufocus

Market Covered: 88+ countries

Focus: Fundamental And Value Investing.

Best Feature: Very Comprehensive “All in One ” Screen

Best stock screener - Gurufocus

one of our favorite stock screener. Gurufocus is most comprehensive screener out there for Fundamental investors. As far as we know, This site is even used by Some professional Hedge fund managers Along with their Bloomberg subscription.

screeners very useful stock screener and research site for any fundamental investors with 30 years of financial data.

Predefined screens– Ben Graham net-net, Peter Lynch screen, Buffett and Munger Screen, Joel Greenblatt’s Magic formula, Dividend screener and many more.

Insider deals– Keep track of insider deals happening on your favorite stocks.

Gurus– Want to co-tail successful investor? get real-time and latest Guru picks with their portfolio.

Feature list here is endless and cater to almost all of your investing research needs

This website is worth checking out if you are serious about investing

3.StockFetcher

Markets covered: Major US markets only

Focus: stock traders

Best Feature: Custom filter

best sock screener - StockFetcher

If you are an experienced trader then this site is for you with over 125 technical indicators to filter for your screens.

This is really easy (once you get hang of it), powerful stocks screener for Stock traders.

what we like most about this site  is that you can create your own custom screens with the only indicator you want and can research way you want,

Even allows you to Define and save your custom technical criteria and you can research the way you want.

4.Meetinvest

Market Covered: Worldwide 128+ countries

Focus: Proven strategies of most successful investors

Best Feature: It is completely Free

Great for: Brainstorming new ideas

best sock screener - MeetInvest

This one is the most amazing Strategy based screener Available for worldwide stock markets for free.

MeetInvest is not your regular screener, here you can run 50+ pre-defined strategies of greatest investors of your choice.

This site runs and filters stock lists for you daily as if great investors like Benjamin Graham, James Slater, Warren Buffett or Peter Lynch personally curating a stock list for you using their own Strategies.

This is really easy and non-technical investment tool free from any jargons.

here is a complete list of strategies available in Meetinvest with its sources.

1.Jordan Kimmel

– Portfolio Manager of Gitterman Wealth Management, Author of “The Magnet method

2. Michael O’Higgins

– His famous “Dogs of the Dow” investment strategy as revealed in “Beating the Dow” 

3.James Oberweis
-American businessman, investment manager “The Oberweis Octagon” Investment model
4.Patrick O’Shaughnessy

– Strategy described in “Millennial Money: How Young Investors Can Build a Fortune

5.Walter Schloss

– Legendary Value investor, fund manager, and philanthropist. Notable student of Ben Graham.

6.Luke Wiley

The 52-Week Low Formula” A very logical framework for identifying companies with a sustainable business Moat(competitive advantage) that are trading at attractive prices

7.Relative P/E
8. David Fish

– Famous for his “Dividend champions list”

9. Kenneth L. Fisher

– Strategy of billionaire investor “Beat The CrowdHow You Can Out-Invest The Herd By Thinking Differently.

10.Marc Reinganum

– Investor and author of “Selecting Superior Securities ” a rare and one of the best.
The book presents criteria for stock selection that works in the real market.

11. Philp A. Fisher

-Screen your stocks by strategy mentioned in “Common stocks and Uncommon Profits” recommended by Warren Buffett.

12. Colin Nicolson

– ‘Building Wealth in the Stock Market’: A Proven Investment Plan for Finding the Best Stocks and Managing Risk

13. Robert G. Hagstrom

-“The Warren Buffett Way” Practical advice on Buffett-like Value Investing

14. Martin Zweig

– Influential investment adviser run a stock screener strategy which is based on Winning on Wall Streetwith a single click.

15. Phil Town

– Strategy Rule No.1“. He successfully turned $1000 to $1.45 million in five years.

16. John Neff

– Former head of Vanguard Windsor Fund was known for contrarian and value investing.

17. James O’Shaughnessy

– His dual approach Growth and value investing to minimize volatility and increase capital growth. strategy revealed in his book “What Works on Wall Street”.

18. Peter Lynch stock screener

– This is one of our favorite screener.He was able to compound money at 29.2% for 20 years, that’s even more than Warren Buffet’s performance. His strategy was revealed in his bestseller “One Up On Wall Street” 

19.Joel Greenblatt

– His Strategy Famous investment Strategy ” Magic Formula”  outline in his bestseller  “The Little Book That Beats the Market” Joel has an impressive performance record of 40% CAGR for last 20 years.

20.James Derrick Slater

– 80’s Famous “The Zulu Principle”

21. Benjamin Graham

– This name no introduction classic Ben Graham’s “The Intelligent Investor” strategy run it on meetinvest.com

22. David Dreman

– His investment philosophies and along  with timeless advice is present in his Masterpiece “Contrarian Investment Strategy”

23.Geraldine Weiss

– She is known as Queen of Dividends Author of Dividends Don’t Lie

24. Sir John Templeton

– In 1999, Money magazine named him “arguably the greatest global stock picker of the century”.Truly global investor his strategy “Contrarian Bargain Hunting” is available in meetinvest.

25. Josef Lakonishok

– His value investing Strategy focused on near term results.“The Incredible January Effect” which outlines the Number of  inefficiencies in markets that any investors can exploit in order to outperform the overall market.

26.Joseph Piotroski

“9 point F-score ranking system”, a value investing model whose stock picks gained 138.8% in the previous year.

27.Mary Buffett

Buffetology another popular book on warren buffet reveling his various methods.

28.Susan Levermann

“13 Factor Strategy” of Investing based on here book her book “Der entspannte Weg zum Reichtum”(the relaxed way to wealth) this is available only in german and was never translated in English

29. Wayne A. Thorpe

– His strategy is based on keen observation of  “Earning revisions” which impacts stocks prices every year.

30. William O’Neil

– you may have heard his famous investment strategy “CAN SLIM” a 7-step process for minimizing risk and maximizing gains, written in “How to Make Money in Stocks: A Winning System in Good Times and Bad”.

certainly, these are proven investment strategies and formulas of worlds most successful investors.

you must not forget to do your own research and measure risk.

Although Meetinvest provides daily, weekly and monthly email option. I have found its works best on a monthly basis.

5.Finviz

Markets covered: Major US stock exchanges

Focus: Trading, equity, futures,forex,cryptocurrencies

Best Feature: Backtester

best stocks screeners- Finviz

Finviz is short for financial visualization.

This stock screener is widely used by many professional traders, institutions as well as enthusiastic beginners.

Finviz helps you generate ideas and find real-time opportunities for trading in stocks, forex, cryptos, and futures.

speer through the financial news, market maps, comparative tools and charts, portfolio tracking, advanced screeners, and sector performance tools in one single browser-based platform

The whole platform is filled with color-coded charts and quotes which help you visualize which are performing well and which aren’t in equity, futures, forex and crypto market quickly.

With elite membership (costing $24.96 only), you can test the profitability of any strategies or ideas with Backtesting, saving you money and time significantly as opposed to “trial and error” method.

get an instant idea of  total return and max drawdown use your own indicator and add exit conditions

best stocks screener - backtesting

Conclusion

Stock Screener sometime can be overwhelming, every stock screener is quite unique and serves different as trading and investing needs are a bit different. some platforms are best for research, some are good for only for screening only. At the end of the day if you are trading good or investing well it’s all worth it.

Did you agree with our list? which one is your favorite tool?

comment below

Renting an Apartment Easy Guide : Even with bad Credit

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guide to renting an apartment

 

Apartment Renting Is Not Difficult. Consider These Ideas.

Do you have plans for renting an apartment out there? There
is a solution for you. There are many factors that you should consider. You will note that most people usually rent different apartments out there.

Ideally, you should rent an apartment that fits your budget. You should also choose an apartment that is strategically located. Ideally, it should be closer to where you work and so on.

You will note that apartment renting is not an easy undertaking.
Most people usually experience challenges here and there. If you want to rent an apartment, there are some factors that you should consider.

You should know how to rent an apartment even when you have bad credit. It is also important that you know how you can save more on your rent expense. This article will help you understand these ideas in detail. The following are ideas on how to rent an apartment out there:

1. Know the type of apartment that you want.

You will realize that there are many types of apartments out
there. This is because different clients usually have different needs. Ideally, you should know the kind of apartment that you are looking for. Are you looking for a studio apartment or for a one-bedroom apartment duplex or triplex?

You should be clear about how you want your apartment to look like. It will be a good idea to be a bit flexible when searching for an apartment out there. You should be keen to check the size of
the apartment, presence of natural light, parking and other amenities. This can actually help you to get more value for your money.

2. Check the neighborhood.

It is worth noting that each neighborhood usually has its
own personality. In this case, you should choose the one that fits your lifestyle and values. You will note that some people normally like urban neighborhood while others usually like suburban neighborhoods. You should, therefore, choose the one that suits your needs. Remember that the type of neighborhood that you
choose will actually determine the amount of rent that you will pay at the end.

3. Property management.

It is worth noting that most apartments usually have property
managers. You will note that these property managers usually handle any issues for residents of different apartments. You can even get these property managers online. Ideally, you should choose those managers that have your best interests.
This can prevent you from getting frustrated. If property management is good, you can trust that you will live peacefully in that apartment for longer periods.

Can you rent an apartment with bad credit?

Did you know that your credit score can determine whether
you are going to rent an apartment or not? Most people hardly know this. You will note that some landlord might be hesitant to allow you to rent their apartment if you have bad credit. This can actually frustrate you. The following are ideas on how to rent an apartment with bad credit:

1. Know your credit report.

It is important that you know your credit report so that you
can know your credit history. Sometimes, the credit report might have errors and this can actually hinder you from getting an apartment of your dreams.

you click below link to check your free credit score

www.credit.com/free-credit-score/

You should ensure that these errors are removed so that you can have a good credit report.
This can help you to get an apartment out there.

2. Consider those apartments that do not need credit.

You will realize that there are some landlords who do not
ask for credit reports before allowing you to rent their apartment. You should, therefore, aim for apartments that are owned by individual landlords that do not require you to have good credit. Some of them are actually ready to take a risk on a tenant who has bad credit. As long as you have a good rental history,
you can trust that you will secure an apartment in the long run.

3. Ensure that you have a steady and provable income.

It is worth to note that sufficient income can actually
offset negative credit history. This has actually worked well for many people out there. If you have proof of your income, you can trust that you will get an apartment of your choice. Sometimes, you can make about 3 to 4 times the monthly rent just to show your landlord that you can actually manage to pay
rent without any difficulties.

4. Renting an apartment with a co-signer.

This is another option that can help you get an apartment
even when you have bad credit. In this case, your co-signer should meet the necessary credit qualification. If this individual has good credit, you can be sure that you will be able to secure an apartment of your choice.

5. Be ready to pay more upfront.

You will be required to pay a higher security deposit between
one and three months of rent in order to move to your new apartment. In this case, you should ensure that you have more money when looking for a new
apartment out there.

How can you save on rent?

Most people would like to reduce their rent in order to do
other activities. You can actually save more money when renting an apartment and even manage to start a business. However, there are some ideas that can help you to achieve this objective. The following are ideas on how to save on
rent:

1. Choose a different location.

Sometimes, the location where you want to rent an apartment
might make you spend more money on rent. This means that you have to dig deeper into your pocket. You might actually save more money if you choose to move far away from your school or workplace. However, this distance should be a considerable distance.

You can even look for different locations and check
their respective prices.

This can help you to save more money.

2. Consider getting roommates.

You can consider getting a roommate whom you like and share
a lot of qualities. This can still help you to reduce your rent.

You can even get more roommates as long as you will not be congested in your apartment. If you choose comfortable roommates, you can trust that you will have a good time with them and even share rent cost with them. This has worked well for many people out there.

3. Consider private rentals.

You can actually save a lot by renting private apartments. You
can get these private rentals in the newspapers and even on the internet. Sometimes, you might get a poster indicating that a certain apartment is privately owned.
Renting this apartment can help you to save more money.

Consider these factors when renting an apartment and you
will not regret. These ideas can help you get a good apartment and still help you to save more on your rent. Consider these apartment renting ideas today and
you will not be frustrated.

Stock Market Trends: Analyze & Identify It Correctly

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Stock market trends

Around 2.31- 8.31 billion shares are traded each day in the US markets.

And for every single transaction made in the market each day has its results in the price movements which in turn change the Stock market trends.

well, you can never predict in absolute term, how these collections of transactions will work because this transaction represents a collection of individuals, speculators, investors, hedge funds, mutual funds, etc. Each with a different view and objective of the markets.

But there is an “Order in this chaos” and it’s your job to find it. Because Fortune changes with every tick of price and this article will help you understand the order in chaos.

Sensing Stock Market Trends

They said “Trends are Friends’.

If you are trying to interpret current stock market trends why not use the classic “Dow Theory” which was developed by Charles Dow, who was Co-founder and editor of the wall street journal until his death in 1902 and was also the co-founder of Dow Jones & company. The Dow Theory which is a  market-timing tool that has been relevant on Wall Street for over a century now. This is still very relevant for any financial market, any country or at any given point of time.

Now, Trends are really important for the traders and Trends can make or break the life of any trader.

Similarly, the understanding of Long term trends is also an important component for any Long term investor’s success.

If trends are not with you then it will be in very difficult positions.

But wait, what is a Trend actually is?

Simply put trends are “Movement of price averages

You may have heard simple moving average or  Weighted moving average well let’s not dig into that now.

According to Dow theory

The Market Has Three Trends

All of which may be in progress at one and the same time. or in other words, All three trends are active all the time and maybe moving in opposite directions.

Primary Trend

When people say we are in the Bull-market(long uptrend) or in the Bear-market (long Downtrend) they are basically indicating the broad upward or downward trends also know as Primary stock market trends. These trends may last several years. Primary trends are often interrupted by secondary and minor trends.

These long term market trends are most easy to understand, classify and Identify.

 

Secondary Trends

These are the most deceptive trend or reactions these are an important decline in bull markets or rally in a primary bear trend.

These reactions usually remain for a few weeks or months

These trends are super important for speculators and swing of momentum traders.

And if a long term investor is willing to work a bit more. He or she can optimize the portfolio returns by going Long or shots in parts as these trends present themselves.

Young Warren Buffet with small capital was used to do the same with his Graham-dodd style value investing enabling him to ride the full secondary trends often.

 

 

Minor/Tertiary Trends

These are daily fluctuations and mainly are concerned of the day traders who attempt to make money on a daily basis.

As time goes by these trends may become the secondary reaction when continued for at least a week or so.

When trying to figure out the stock market trends, you should train your eyes to look for all the three trends.

 No real stock market trends without volumes

One important factor and where most of the people make mistakes is that “These Trends must be confirmed with Volumes”. 

if there’s an uptrend then that should be confirmed with more buying volumes and downtrend should be confirmed with more sell volumes.

Phases of Trends

phases of stock markets trendsTo increase your understanding further. You must know that each trend has three distinct phases of the “Trends”.

In the typical Bull market for example

After steep corrections, when usually markets feel hopeless and fear grips the market “Smart money”, institutional investors and value investors who invest for very long term get in and start accumulations slowly at dirt cheap prices without spooking prices too much. this is an accumulation phase. Like for a mutual fund, it’s not easy to move in and out quickly without affecting the prices much. it can take up to 3-4 weeks for a mutual fund to take any position.

Once prices start to move up a bit short term trader & jump in & usually coincides with improved market sentiments tend to take the stock price higher hence the beginning of the “markup phase”

As more and more public participation and trading increase, trend reaches a phase called “Distribution Phase” where now long term investors usually start offloading their position slowly and it usually followed by panic and cycle starts again.

Similarly, in a primary bear trend, It starts with the distribution phase, then public participation or markdown phase, and ends with panic (or despair) phase.

These cycles are always present in Secondary and minor trends as well.

 

Limitations of Dow theory

1. Markets are Always Efficient

Dow theory is based on Efficient market theory, which means all information – past, current and even future are reflected in current market prices are already discounted which includes earnings potential, competitive advantage aka “The Moats”, management competence as it completely ignores the behavioral & value aspect of markets.

Which in turn means You Cannot beat the market returns.

And that’s simply NOT TRUE(emphasis added).

Here warren buffet think about Efficient market theory

“I’m convinced that there are many inefficiencies in the market. These Graham-and-Doddsville investors have successfully exploited gaps between price and value. When the price of a stock can be influenced by a “herd” on Wall Street with prices set at the margin by the most emotional person, or the greediest person, or the most depressed person, it is hard to argue that the market always prices rationally. In fact, market prices are frequently nonsensical.”

2. It’s just a monitor

Dow theory reads Markets like a Heart monitor, It won’t tell you the cause of changes but may lead to the symptoms that lead to change.

These methods can only give you a general idea of trends only.

These are not an infallible system for beating the market.

Any financial market is just a collection of individual human beings and bots. Human beings are fallible.

Conclusion

Analyzing stock market trends are a critical factor for success.

An investor with very long term view try to capture primary trends and are not concerned with secondary & minor trends. But can optimize the returns by taking secondary trends into consideration.

Short/medium term investor and speculators can ride the secondary trends they can optimize their returns with minor trends.

As with anything in life more you train your eyes to look at the markets better you will get with time. Better you will be able to play the markets

And combining your value investing with stock market trends is a very intelligent way of investing.

Next time when someone asks you “what is the market trend?”

I hope you will answer with “Which one you want to know?

Budget 2019-Why Stock Market is Not Liking this?

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financial budget 2019- why indian market not liking this budget

Finance Budget 2019, India Ready to Make Markets More Attractive soon

 

The Macros are shifting in India. With this budget 2019 seems like  NDA 2.0’s aims to make the domestic markets more attractive and accessible to foreign investors

And Macro investors like Jim Rogers must be smiling, so are the value investors because they will soon find bargains.

It looks like even the Modi Government is anticipating a big crash and Bear and position itself to collect Maximum revenues i.e taxes

 

Following are the key takeaways from Finance budget 2019, India

Mandatory increase in Public Float to 35%

Although the Government of India proposed a mandatory increase in Public shareholding to 35%. The Market regulator SEBI yet to confirm this. But the government is certainly sure of it.

If Regulator follows the government proposal, Then Around 1400 listed companies where promoters holding are over 65 percent stake will have to offload to meet the new requirement, Resulting Around Rs 4 Trillion of excess equity supply in the Indian Markets.

Here is the list of Top 20 companies will get affected

budget 2019-top companies to get affected by minimum 35% public holding

Many Blue chip companies are in Dilemma whether to sell excess holding or delist their company

Delisting will be Double taxable to investors (See buyback taxes below).

Security Transaction Tax In Derivative.

Till now, In Option Trades, the buyer had to pay STT at 0.125 % of the settlement price.

And when an option is not exercised, the seller had to pay STT at the rate of 0.05 % on the option premium received.

This Budget streamlined the Securities Transaction Tax (STT) by restricting it to only the difference between settlement and strike prices in case of exercise of options

From now STT will be charged only on the difference between Settlement and Strike price if option exercised.

So, Expect more trades expiring “in the money”

The FII/Big investors can now make positions through Options with lesser risk and money.

Here in Investorchief believe that scrips with the mandatory Delivery settlement will experience more volatility, so the more chances of the find bargains. you might want to compare your List of “Circle of competence” list with  List of Mandatory Physical Delivery settlements for Derivatives.

BuyBack Taxes Surprise in budget 2019

In the Bull markets, Companies often use Buybacks to drive prices higher.

But now, It will be 20% BuyBack Taxes in Addition to 10 % Long term capital gain taxes re-introduced in the earlier budget by then Finance Minister Arun Jaitley.

This will also put an extra burden on the companies who are thinking of Delisting or just using buybacks to drive the prices of stocks.

Double taxation on the hand of the investor will also be the Deciding factors in coming days to come.

In Conclusion,

Current signs are not good given the recent lower GDP growth & slower consumption rate. Indian public Banks are still in trouble, Newer NPAs are being reported day by day. Government bailing them out using Public money. Government providing the stimulus but markets are Still failing or hardly performing well. Punishing rich with extra taxes. These are classic signs of a weak market.

while the Markets were rising and getting narrower by the stimulus efforts. Likewise, the corporate earnings and dividends were not increasing,

so it will be natural to expect that some corrections or bear is around the corner

just waiting for some event to trigger it

Which the reason that Short term Traders are bracing for the markets. But Long term value investors are rejoicing as Soon many bargains will be available in future-forward.

What you think, what will be the “Trigger”?Could this be the trade war or this budget is? or anything else Let us know in the comments

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